The next wave of communication…

We all know the connecting power of Facebook- the power of sharing our life’s details and observations simultaneously with many of our friends.

We also are observing changes- less elective business travel, more focus on one or two key professional associations rather than multiple associations—with a desire to do more of our business electronically which is punctuated by the recession —  using tools like GoToMeeting, WebEx, observing conferences using Astute Conference.CAST® and doing our certification and testing online (with tools like Net.SCORE®).

We are all getting used to the power of Google- in rapidly getting both the most direct and esoteric results of our search.  The power to instantly mine the enormous wealth of the Internet.

News and publications are 24/7- and paper is being replaced with electronic media as the preferred and most profitable method for disseminating information. Publication deadlines are becoming compressed from old editorial paradigms in which the dance between writers and editors had involved mailing manuscripts and redlines between the parties for six months to a year leading to approval for publication.

Video is now becoming a key feature of all media- in the past couple of days, Firefox has introduced the capability to play videos within the browser without a plug-in.  Look at the impact of video on the web- with the number of views of Michael Jackson videos in the past week… what a powerful and important ’shared resource’ that we now have at our fingertips!

So, with this quick review, we are seeing the ‘mash-up’ of all of the above events/patterns/trends.

In this background, we are seeing the evolution of a powerful new suite of software technologies- Google Wave and Microsoft Live Mesh.  These platforms enable instant collaboration over networks – building on the power and popularity of social networks to enable the ability to share interactively.  But instead of providing the ‘first wave’ of technology which provides only the ability to share one to many; the next ‘wave’ or ‘mesh’ of technology enables true, interactive communication/collaboration between individuals and groups.  Sharing of images, text, the ability to self-assemble which groups/individuals that are part of the ‘conversation’ are all features of these new platforms as well as the ability to make use of computers and cell phones to share this information.

Catch the next wave of communications (Googlewave and MS Live Mesh)

I see the combination of Google Wave and/or Live Mesh coupled with rich media providing a powerful platform to dynamically share information to people who can use it to evolve that idea to new heights in a more rapid and efficient manner than ever before.

These platforms allow an unprecedented level of rapid, dynamic collaboration.  We now have tools which break the barriers of space and time and allow for an unprecedented level of collaboration.  The concept of providing a ‘virtual meeting’ which couples the traditional notion of ‘lectures’ and aggregation of participatory audiences is only the beginning of the possibilities- imagine coupling this information with dynamic aggregation of content and participants; information sharing as well as new dynamic advertising and revenue opportunities.

With the increasing agility of technology, organizations and individuals will have tools to process information in unprecedented ways and can either use these tools or watch others create and refine knowledge with them.

In the past, organizations tried to maintain control over information flow and insure that quality is maintained in a consistent and consistent fashion.  One had to pick the right people to review publications and control the process.  If those who were to review the information are not available; then there was a delay in reviewing and getting the information out.

Instead, speed to market of the information is a driving force, organically sharing information and letting ‘market conditions’ – availability and speed to react; providing the context of ‘group dynamics’ drive the decision-making process. Web 2.0 brought citizen journalism and less expensive and more rapidly created media available to enable professionally produced news to co-mingle with traditional news media.  This next ‘wave’ will provide a new powerful capability for building communities of knowledge- on demand and with the necessary agility to cope with an ever increasing, exponentially building knowledge coupled with the speed of the Internet in sharing information.

References/Resources:

Microsoft has its live mesh approach; Google has Google wave; I
suspect that Apple also has something up its sleeve- as it is making
huge investments in data centers…

Microsoft polished commercial:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFpwzg-AP_Q
-btw- it is getting more and more important for tech companies to do
great videos- the production quality of this is quite impressive…

Microsoft website:
https://www.mesh.com/welcome/default.aspx

French version:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqfga2BMeUg

Microsoft lecture:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKL2uOyGXC8&NR=1

Google may have an advantage- in their experience online as
well as the gadgets/tools that are being developed… open source-
big developer community- fact that Facebook is non-Microsoft…

Technology comparisons:

http://tech.slashdot.org/story/09/06/09/198205/Ray-Ozzie-Calls-Google-Wave-Anti-Web?from=rss

Here is the statement by Ray Ozzie (lotus notes inventor and Chief Software Architect of Microsoft:
http://www.geardiary.com/2009/06/05/ray-ozzie-google-wave-is-anti-web-mesh-is-good/

http://www.cmswire.com/cms/enterprise-20/google-wave-taking-the-enterprise-from-microsoft-004821.php

http://defectivecompass.wordpress.com/2009/06/01/google-wave-is-impressive/
-above is a good review…

http://www.25hoursaday.com/weblog/2009/06/04/DevelopersOnGoogleWave.aspx

The Art of Making a Difference

It’s great to be able to make a difference and improve our collective condition.  It is even more satisfying to combine ‘artist expression’ in making a difference.  I have been fortunate to have been able to produce several efforts that educate and inform in a visually interesting and engaging manner. Two experiences that occurred this week illustrate this good fortune…

ReStart DC is a great program that focuses on providing automated external defibrillators (AEDs) which can save lives.  ReStart provides the defibrillators as well as training.  Astute designed both the website :   http://www.restartdc.org/ for the initiative as well as produced several videos to demystify the fact that everyone should be comfortable using an AED.  The devices speak to you, and provide instructions and ONLY shock if it is needed.  Take a look at the videos that we produced.  The instruction may help save a life.

Lynne Cheney speaks at the launch of ReStart DC

In the past week, we won the 2009 National Family Caregiving Awards Program with our partner, The Copper Ridge Institute.  The video provides in depth training on how to care for a loved one with Alzheimer’s disease in the home.  We transformed a nine hour continuing education course for nurses into a one hour video (available on the web) in both English and Spanish — see:   http://www.alzcast.org/dvd_caregiver.asp

I am very excited about the future of video for healthcare education.  In addition, there are strong opportunities for the direct provision of video on mobile devices – like iPhones.  We are working on some exciting new prospects in this area as well.

See No Kindle, Hear No Kindle …

The new kindle is very exciting- it is markedly improved in functionality from the prior versions- with a better user interface and longer battery life.

Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon and The Original Kindle

There is only one major problem that is emerging with the device- a legal/positioning issue surrounding speech to text. Apparently the Authors Guild has pressured Amazon (the maker of the Kindle) to enable the publishers/authors the ability to stop the device from providing speech to text and hence, preserving the revenue stream for audio books as well as a ‘legal discussion’ as to whether or not the speech to text feature of Kindle would violate copyright of the works that can be downloaded. Amazon has obliged by creating a ‘toggle’ to enable the publisher to select whether or not the book can be converted from text to speech and states that it has not broken any copyright regulation in providing this feature on the device.   See:  http://www.pcworld.com/printable/article/id,160415/printable.html and http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USTRE51R02R20090228 .

I think that there is a dangerous precedent that the AG has embarked on, perhaps reversing all of the hard work and progress that has gone into making computers more accessible as well as the section 508 guidelines that provide accessibility for individuals with disabilities to experience websites in a manner which offers the same functionality for all.

The Kindle has triggered an ‘awareness’ of the possibilities offered by speech to text; offering both  accessibility as well as an additional means by which all can consume publications.  I would doubt that the AG will approach and request all of the following companies to build in ‘toggles’ to prevent speech to text:   Microsoft, Apple, Adobe, the makers of all Linux text-to-speech software, and every PC manufacturer) and these functions are needed to sell into their respective markets and to enable accessibility.

In my personal opinion, the AG puts itself at risk with this activity in several dimensions:

Many publishers publish text books and other publications that are sold to federal, state and local governments. There could be a significant backlash to these publishers if they pick and choose which works can and cannot be accessible on particular devices/formats. Accessibility is critical to the government with the 508 as well as commercial companies (see recent case with Target and accessibility http://www.dmnews.com/Target-Suit-Raises-Bar-for-Web-Businesses/article/92728/ ). I would think that Amazon, the AG and individual authors who elect not to make works accessible are putting themselves at risk.

From an accessibility standpoint, there may be options for receiving information in additional formats; however, devices like the Kindle are almost a Godsend to those with disabilities- now the most recent works offered in the Kindle format by Amazon could be accessible with speech to text. However, if publishers select the option of not providing speech to text as an option; then accessibility suffers- and the promise of the device is diminished.

My concern is the fact that Amazon has opened the door by making the concession to the AG which may prevent individuals in the future from receiving the latest information- creating a greater divide between those with and without disabilities.  Amazon has reacted to prevent titles from not shipping to their platform but in doing so, has created a precedent that may do more harm than good in its influence regarding the provision accessibility for future hardware and intellectual property.

In addition, the fastest growing demographic is the over 55 population.  With an increasing population that has visual challenges (e.g., age related macular degeneration) – the Kindle could be a great asset with this fast growing, visually challenged group… the great potential of the Kindle may be only serve as a small ’spark’ rather than illuminating the great potential of this device and paradigm shift if authors/publishers start to selectively limit the accessibility of their works.

Outcomes and Education

There are big changes of seismic proportions occurring in one of the most well funded areas of education- continuing medical education. This blog entry documents changes in medical education- although specific to medicine; they may be of interest to anyone following developments in educational program development.

I was recently in San Francisco for several meetings and took the pulse of the annual Alliance for Continuing Education meeting – which brings together medical education executives, association educational leaders, organizations that support educational activities as well as sponsors. The industry is in transition- as funding is decreasing and radically changing. In what I will refer to as ‘education 1.0’- the business model was to come up with an idea for an education program, pitch the idea and obtain funding by a sponsor. Success was measured by the number of participants and some participant reported survey information about course success (or in some cases, aggregate results on activity specific ‘tests’).

The evolving educational paradigm- Education for Life & Performance

Now, the model has turned on its head. Outcomes are the name of the game. It is critical for a wide range of reasons to build educational activities that can be mapped to clinical outcomes. The players in the ‘education 1.0’ era are seldom equipped with the necessary tools/expertise/connections to make the jump from ‘education 1.0 and outcomes-based education or ‘education 2.0’ – as this is more of a research protocol activity that involves different players as well as connections within academia. In addition, program funding is now frequently required to be made directly to a non-profit association or care provider- making it more difficult for the traditional medical education firms to survive in this new period (as many of the firms were the primarily recipients of educational funding in times past). In addition, the program funding opportunities are now routed through electronic submission processes that further remove interaction between program requestor and sponsor.

Electronic medical records (EMR), a subject of the ‘economic recovery package’ which is being promoted by President Obama can help to facilitate outcomes collection and integration. EMRs are more efficient in bring hospital records to the fingertips of providers – creating a more efficient information flow which can improve patient outcomes, decrease adverse drug reactions (by having key, timely information available regarding allergies, other medications that are being taken) as well as rapid insight into a patient’s condition. These same systems, when used as a data research tool, can shed light on the clinical outcomes of educational initiatives.

The provision of education is dramatically changing in ‘education 2.0’ – instead of passively sitting in a lecture hall or attending a conference, the concept of ‘prescriptive’ education is front and center in this new world of education. The idea of a single expert providing ‘grand rounds’ in a hospital auditorium is likely to be a thing of the past. In the near future, expert opinions will be collected and synthesized- and provided on the next generation of professional social networks and ‘digital dashboards’ – more on this below. People are getting used to rapidly consumed information which can be exchanged with peers- like in social networks. While, I don’t see the majority of this education consumption occurring at ‘the point of care’ or at the bedside; I see education occurring in ‘aggregate’ in evenings and weekends and I see education being electronically incorporated into the EMR. Education can then be tracked and consumed ‘anywhere, anytime’ with pod/webcasting and other technologies.

Outcomes and quality care initiatives are also driving ‘education 2.0.’ JCAHO – Joint Commission for the Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations now incorporates patient satisfaction indices along with morbidity/mortality data with the new website: http://www.qualitycheck.org (see 1/20/09 press release: http://www.jointcommission.org/NewsRoom/NewsReleases/nr_1_20_09.htm ). As a result outcomes may also dictate economic success of provider institutions.

Because of these new changes in the funding and competitive environments- education will be integrated with EMR results- education and clinical performance will now be integrated in a profound and measurable manner- and educational effectiveness and technique will become more of a science. Funding opportunities from hospital systems as well as third party vendors (equipment manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, EMR companies, etc), government agencies (such as NIH, CDC) will provide new and exciting collaborative efforts.

In a broad sense, education and performance will be inextricably combined. This will usher a new age of medical education and practice and if successful, we may draw lessons from this experience that can enhance education in many other sectors—think of the application of this concept in any field where one can measure performance and offer ‘perscriptive’ education on an on-going basis to improve the results…

Chaos, Opportunity and Education

Becoming educated is not simply just exposure to knowledge; it is also the sequence and staging of the information- prerequisites- that enable us to progress. Education is also a social experience- that typically requires reinforcement, and interaction to learn and apply concepts. Education requires context to provide meaning and understanding. Novel software, marketing, and the successful interplay between business and education will all be critical to enable new and exciting educational opportunities to emerge. Economic realities can also help to forge a new environment wherein those organizations that are agile and adaptive enough will prosper and those that remain static in these changing times will cease to exist.

The Chinese Symbol for Chaos/Crisis/Opportunity

As the Chinese New Year approaches, I am reminded of the relationship between the symbols for ‘chaos’ and ‘opportunity.’ For those institutions that are equipped with the right strategy- the world is your oyster.

Universities are under tremendous pressure these days. Declining endowment portfolios, increasing institutional and tuition costs, greater difficulties retaining and recruiting faculty, greater challenges for students to obtain loans during this period of frozen credit. In addition, our increasing unemployment and diminishing liquidity make the option of the traditional four year college/university increasingly difficult.

But one of the greatest challenges is the growing acceptance of the on-line universities. How can more than a few of the elite institutions with large research funding as well as self-sustaining endowments; i.e., the Ivy League schools survive? Increasingly, there is a growing competition from on-line university options; their low direct and indirect costs (no on-campus travel, lodging, meals, lack of options for concurrent employment). In addition, on-line universities are based on Internet technologies and they are typically much more efficient with on-line marketing. The on-line university does not have the overhead of the brick-and-mortar University- and hence is much more agile both from a financial perspective as well as the opportunity to offer a more diverse faculty/subject/degree programs. In addition, the recurrent campus violence which has plagued several college/universities doesn’t help.

From the employers perspective- there is a diminishing distinction between recipients of on-line versus brick and mortar degrees.

One can argue that the experience will never be the same online versus living on campus. The great library, the social scene, fraternities/sororities, sports… I can’t argue with this- but at what price? The idyllic, isolated college campus is removed from the ‘working urban world.’ Students continue to be taught in terms of achieving ‘individual performance.’ However, success in the ‘real world’ of industry is based on a ‘team’ – collaboration. Name a new product/service that was developed with the same isolation as a ‘term paper’ requires. Colleges and Universities will need to reinforce the collaborative mindset to enable graduates to be successful in this increasingly global economy- particularly as the economy undergoes increasing stress; requiring more resourcefulness on the parts of individuals and organizations.

Each of the ‘traditional’ experiences is being transformed by technology. To bring all up to speed; I will provide a brief overview of all of the changes that are occurring: The social scene occurs with great helpings of Facebook, MySpace, Twitter; physical libraries have been marginalized by online resources (journals, search engines, even books online). The next generation of ebooks will make more of a dent here as well with digital paper on the horizon as well as Amazon Kindle and Sony’s continuing efforts in developing ebooks. People are relying more and more on social networks to connect, to find items (eBay) jobs (Monster, Career Builder, Craigs list), housing (e.g., Craigs list). Online dating supplants meeting in social settings.

In addition, few educational institutions are making use of the principles of ‘life-long’ learning…. They are focused on a offering the ‘diploma’ but very few reach out to alumni to continue to offer training and/or networking opportunities- or even ‘case studies’ of successful alumni.

My prediction is that the successful educational institutions will form novel, new partnerships which will enable ‘the long tail’ of courses and subject areas which will extend beyond the traditional limited offerings. New certificate programs will arise. Many campuses will either merge, disappear or will become privatized; creating a ‘great shake out’ and consolidation in education. Campuses will also renew their interest in research – as a substantial amount of funding that supports our campuses arises from this funding and opportunities for enhanced corporate-university partnerships will arise.

At some point in the near future, campuses will embrace technology- not the simple adoption of BlackBoard to enhance curriculum distribution and other commodity functionality; but a new breed of technology which will embrace this iPod, Facebook, TiVO, YouTube, iPhone/SmartPhone, Google, Wikipedia generation and equip them with educational tools and a range of worldwide expertise which will give them the basis to compete and work in the new reality.

So, what does the ‘eCampus’ of the future look like? It will provide us with an educational portal and/or Widgets that will enable us to learn on-line at low price points. Just as iTunes gave us the .99 cent song; eLearning will connect us with great talent, on-demand and the quality of this experience will continue to increase- enabling view of lecturers, sophisticated educational presentations with dynamic graphics, three-dimensional simulations, online surveys, social networking, and job opportunities all integrated into a powerful framework.

Imagine the opportunity afforded by transforming multiplayer 3D games into challenges that thousands of individuals could use to solve corporate or social problems and in some cases, earn a living. In some cases, these opportunities would be on an ad hoc basis; in others, this would be a career or a hybrid between the two. Wikipedia is truly inspirational in that it has enabled the masses to amass a huge repository of ‘shared knowledge.’

Mobile phones will be the power tool for the student of the near and more distant future. The mobile phone of 2010 will have dual-core processors, super-fast data connections, and graphics power rivaling that of the original Xbox. Amazing phones with built in video projection, voice transcription and other capabilities will come out in the coming years and will be rapidly accepted and purchased by the world community. In fact, mobile devices are the most rapidly ‘phased-in’ technology with technology cycle times measured in 12-18 months versus the much longer replacement time of desktop and laptop computers of 3 years or more.

Mobility and rapid access to ‘just in time’ education will enable students to both learn and hold the ‘world of knowledge in the palm of their hand.’ It will become harder and harder to justify a $20-50,000 per year tuition when so much content will be available in such a small form factor. Universities/Colleges and other educational institutions finally have the opportunity to be available in a powerful, ubiquitous technology to maintain and regain the needed relevance and wisdom that can empower the next generation.

2009- The Year of ‘Yes’

In 2008, we still had some tail winds of the dot.com period pushing us in the direction of enhancing technology and innovating. As the pull-back in the economy occurred, the idea of coming up with a ‘comprehensive solution’ has become the mantra. While there is great political ‘hope’ with the upcoming inauguration of President-Elect Barack Obama; few people have determined a path for economic success for small business. I think 2009 is a year of opportunity- if you look in the right places. As the environment becomes more ‘stressed,’ two discrete organizations are emerging- different ways of coping with the challenge.

Jim Carrey’s latest Movie “The Yes Man” illustrates the two options in his typical ‘extreme humor’ – the movie resonates with me and is reflective to show that we do have options – even when the time seems grim… the most success that I have seen in starting companies are in periods of economic downturn and uncertainty- this may seem counter-intuitive- but it may make sense from a combination of Carrey’s film and the short simplification of the way that people and institutions’ react to economic/sociological downturns:

A. Some companies/individuals feel that ‘the glass is half empty’

Many organizations and individuals are paralyzed by the ‘economic crises’ and are ‘running in place’ – not making decisions- or waiting for others or some ‘sign’ that will enable decision making to occur- perhaps waiting for a signal that ‘the crises is over’ and ‘it is safe to make decisions again.’ Many of these organizations will suffer greatly during this down turn and careers will be damaged in these enterprises. Innovation and moral will deteriorate. Negotiations with these companies become solely focused on dollars and cents and often lose site of the true value proposition. There is no longer a discussion of a solution- just filling a need (or not filling it- given the “economic issues”).

B. Others feel that ‘the glass is half full’

Some organizations are embracing this time and re-thinking what is important to their organizations- what is needed to survive. They realize that they need to do something fundamentally different to survive and prosper in these changing times. These companies have the opportunity to examine the new landscape of their ‘ecosystem’ and determine the best path for success. This is a period of renewed outreach- forming partnerships. It is a period where there is less competition and some organizations are more willing to listen. Negotiations with these companies are refreshingly novel- and there is an increased transparency between the organizations needs and what products and services can be provided to both meet existing needs as well as to enhance the position, scalability and ability of the company to meet the needs of its current and future customers.

Given the option, it is obvious that organizations resembling ‘B’ will provide a strong customer base. My guess is that about 25% of organizations fit category ‘B’ and that is why I am excited to be going into 2009. We have seen a lot of new opportunities and I am very encouraged. It will take a combination of insight (gleaned from our most extensive body of experience to date), shared vision and a sprinkle of great technology (and the technology has never been better) and we will have the recipe for success – Yes!

3D TV- The Next Big Thing in Consumer Electronics

As the largest consumer electronic show rolls into action (CES) and makes announcements this week, 3D TV is now coming of age.  Now that digital television is the de facto standard (or will soon be) and 1080p is becoming standard fare for flat screens- the next horizon in home electronics is the 3D TV.

A bit of background on this-

3D displays have been around for some time, but there has not been the distribution platform to make them viable or to create sufficient content.  The red/green glasses didn’t provide sufficient quality and so few titles were available in the movie theaters, that it just didn’t have critical mass.  Theme parks, like Disney (e.g., Bug’s Life exhibit) and later movie theaters started to use the polarized (sun glasses type) of 3D glasses and due to an uptick in theater receipts and a growing list of top revenue generating animations that have used the technology- now there is sufficient interest to seriously deploy the technology for the home.  In addition, higher performance chip sets in Blue Ray boxes, TVs, game systems as well as higher capacity discs (e.g., Blue Ray) provide the necessary capabilities to provide 3D to the home.

I think that 3D will invade the home theater first- as this is a more controlled environment, where people will use the 3D glasses, rather than in the kitchen or living room while they eat their pizza or read the paper (if they are still reading papers in the next 2-3 yrs).  In addition, 3D is focused more on the ‘big screen experience’ – such as the home theater.  Furthermore, people are always looking for ‘bragging rights’ to differentiate their home theaters- and to invite others over- it is much more enticing to say “let’s watch it in 3D…”  Home theater projectors are more likely candidates for 3D than the flat screens – as 3D is more fun as a group experience- and the displays are typically larger.

I have created 3D movies for trade shows and it is a lot of fun- especially to see the audience dodge a large object as it moves.  In one case, we created an animation of the bladder, prostate and other organs and showed it to hundreds of surgeons- they loved it).

In my experiences with 3D interactive programs- there is an art/science to the creation of compelling content- the end-user experience is influenced by the type of movement, use of color, number of simultaneous object movements, etc.  The reason that I bring this up is to point out that 3D movie/interactive experiences need to built from the ground up and typically are not just an after thought or ‘conversion’ from one media type to another.  Hence, we will see some conversions of titles from 3D on the big screen to the smaller home theater screen; but I doubt/hope that we will not see poor quality, after thought 3D featured in media as a ‘check the box’ feature of the media… if this occurs, acceptance of this ‘new media’ will be hindered by its low quality…

With computer animation as a standard for movies- the animators have the tools to very cost effectively produce 3D versions of their fare.  It is a bit more costly for live action- but with the increasing amount of all digital production- this too is much more affordable.  Game developers, authoring computer games- particularly using Xbox360 and Playstation3 offer HD graphics- and are also in the running for 3D interactive experiences that can be displayed using this technology.  Interactive 3D game play is a compelling application of the technology as well.

Some background on 3D:

As humans, we (or about 70% of us) have pretty good stereoscopic vision. The 3D material is stored in two ‘viewpoints’ – there are movie frames that alternate between the left and the right eye’s perspective.  These views are polarized so that they are visible through the corresponding polarized lens of the glasses.  Hence, the left eye, sees the left frames and the right eye sees the right frames.  The movies are typically rendered (if animation) with about 45 degree offsets so that they achieve a stereo appearance.  Feature live action films achieve the effect by using 2 cameras to capture the action that have a similar offset.

Our eyes need about 15 frames per second (preferably around 30) to have ‘flicker fusion’ – or to make action continuous.  With 2 eye viewpoints, the 3D devices need to operate 2x this speed- with a minimum of 60 frames per second.  As you may notice, many LCD TVs are now advertising 120Hz (or 2x this speed– faster means better rendition of movement which is especially important in action adventure flicks and sports).  So, the technology is now at a reasonable point in terms of speed in generating images to support 3D as well.

From an evolutionary perspective, predators have stereo vision (eyes close together on the front of the face to enable more accurate tracking and leaping to get prey- think of lions, tigers) and prey give up the stereo vision to have a larger field of view (think of mice) so they can see a predator sooner.  I think that we have a more ‘emotional/visceral’ reaction to stereoscopic motion pictures because of this evolutionary history…

Apple Predictions

I have had the privilege of using technologies prior to the ‘early adopter’ curve… I am the ‘early early adopter.’  There are many predictions floating around about Apple (and other leading company products).  Having purchased every computer from Apple- including NeXT dimension/cube, Newton, iPhone, Apple TV, etc. etc….

Here is what I predict- in broader strokes and a longer lens than quarter by quarter or conference by conference…

Apple has always focused on enabling creative expression- by creating the ‘computer for the rest of us,’ by enabling ‘WYSIWYG’ displays where fonts appeared on screen like they would on paper.  By innovating in digital video creation.

Applications that extend from the iPhone to the desktop to the web- to enhance productivity– word processing, spreadsheets- but especially blowing out the business presentation category… with fantastic graphics and control of presentations with the next generation of Keynote – the masterful/motion picture, HD, cinematological version of  a presentation authoring versus the low-end, uninspired Microsoft PowerPoint… perhaps with a version that enables integration with the iPhone- with the wifi and accelerometer built into the iPhone — making the iPhone a great presentation control device.

The next step (no pun intended) is device independent creativity.  iPhone, iWork, laptops and cloud computing enabling the creation of elaborate works- works that will eventually enable Pixar like animation creation as well as real-time graphics which will rival today’s animated classics.

Adoption of now accepted standards has to be on the near horizon- acceptance of the Blue Ray standard for DVDs.  Use of faster bus speeds to enable better off-computer storage (e.g., eSata ports).  In addition, innovations in shared knowledge/media (such as the networked based FinalCut– perhaps an iMovie version… enabling families, friends, classmates to build and share a common video library – and edit from it- like the photo sharing sites- but on steroids … ), a lot more innovation in the off-site storage/creativity options afforded by iWeb- with animation and ‘behavioral graphics’ for the rest of us– graphic technologies which are now only used in Motion…

Quad core processors in laptops. 16 core processors in workstations and ability to ‘rent more horsepower’ in the cloud…

Software which will enable the next level of creativity.  Garageband is great.  Imagine iAnimation and other media creation tools.  Graphics have always been the stronghold of Apple- and I expect to see great things for enhancing our creativity in the future…

Intel is working with Yahoo on next gen TVs as is Netflix and LG.  Apple no doubt will also pursue this- with its apps running on the TV as they do with the iPhone and the Mac.

Visualizing Success

In many ventures- thinking about what the success will feel like- planning it – are all important components which make success possible.

In athletics, when we study the thinking process of professional athletes, much more time is spent ‘thinking and preparing for the event’ than actually doing the event.  For example, professional golfers spend more time than novices ‘pre-planning’ a stroke and novices spend more of their mental energies on executing the stroke itself.  The old adage, ‘measure twice, cut once’ has even more meaning today than ever before.  In the production of media- this is also critical.  No doubt, one can save dollars and figure out best ‘path’ based on pre-visualization…

One fun example is:

As it is becoming easier and easier to put more complex illustrations on-line, there is a lot for potential for successful planning.

One great recent example is found on the website:  http://www.xtranormal.com

For example, here is an animation created with this tool:

This site enables the end-user to type in a script and have 3D ‘actors’ perform the script in a selected setting with sound effects, background music, appropriate gestures and body movements as well as pauses and pacing.

The concept behind extranormal.com is to allow more people to participate in the creative process- with text to speech conversion, and virtual characters acting out ones concepts- it is getting there.  Removal of the cost and time required for the production is one goal.  I also see a stronger use by the existing production community- to create more polished work through pre-planning and visualizing productions with this tool.

There is no doubt that many of you will see the awkward hand movements, pacing as obstacles to the ‘performance’ — but this is a great first step forward to cost effectively ‘pre-visualizing’ a performance, the camera angles, pacing and even testing some gestures …

I am looking forward to making use of this tool to pre-plan video vignettes- so that we can test scripts and refine the delivery of key messages prior to hiring an actor and shooting any video.  We have traditionally refined scripts, created storyboards and used other pre-production tools; but nothing is the same as seeing a production to ‘react and refine it.’  Hence, with this technology, we will be able to go through a number of iterations and get an optimal production through the use of these compelling technologies.  There are some challenges- as the ‘performance’ will have different ‘nuances’ than using actual people and there are limitations in terms of what is possible to depict.  But on the whole, a brave new world awaits- with the provision of increasingly sophisticated ‘pre-visionalization tools’ which will serve to better guide our creative processes and provide more material to react and refine prior to final production.

As it becomes possible to place increasingly sophisticated media on-line, tools for publishing this data will become more and more important– hence the Astute Net.SCORE, Encore, Phone.CAST and Knowledge.Portal tools will have increasing importance as well.  In future blog postings, I will write on topics of optimizing production as well as on-line marketing of educational materials.

We are working hard to create the best possible platforms for placing intellectual capital onto a web-enabled system offering on-line rich media, testing, certification, e-commerce and sharing of information.

Educational Tech Charity

This time of year, many companies are providing means to give back to the community- in cash and in kind.

This year, we provided computers, and network infrastructure equipment to public schools.  My favorite donations that we made this year included a ’sound dome’ which looks like the ‘cone of silence’ from the old ‘Get Smart’ series- this device enables focused audio broadcast in discrete regions.  The other is a virtual reality input device.

In addition to making these donations, I have had the chance to speak to several students/faculty about ‘the future’ – careers and technology.

Reaching out to the educational community advanced my perspective on how education is changing and providing new vocational programs for computer science as well as providing the more ‘self-directed students’ the opportunities to perform advanced research in many high tech areas.

To provide some perspective on education and future careers, I suggest viewing this incredible presentation by Sir Ken Robinson:  

As Robinson states, creativity is critical to success- and I had participated in a creativity and leadership conference at Oberlin- the result of which is summarized in this 5 minute video: 

My general advice to those starting out (as well as those at a career crossroad) is to look ‘inside’ and see what they have enjoyed doing – do a personal inventory.  Find out where the passion is- and follow it.  It this is unclear- try to experience as many different venues as possible to be able to make the determination.

One of my personal education/advice/perspective pieces is Steve Job’s commencement address to Stanford: 

Networking is critical- meeting different people doing different things.  Although entry level careers may not provide the ‘instant gratification’ that we are coming to desire through our instant messages, video games, twitter, and other rapid communication and entertainment modalities; great things are possible for those who identify/develop their talents.

In this economy, I have seen many students who are volunteering at companies with little or no ‘inspiration or opportunity for advancement’ and on top of this, they are not gaining financially from the experiences.

‘Time’ is our most precious resource and it needs to be spent wisely.  It is important that young people get the reinforcement that they need to pursue careers.

On the other side of the equation, as business leaders, we need to provide opportunities that are not just ‘punching the clock’ internships or entry level jobs- but true opportunities and paths for those entering the work force to achieve and prosper.  See this amazing video of the ‘future’ of education and visualization:   

Have a great holiday!